Tropical Storm Karen headed for the U.S., T.D. 14 becomes Tropical Storm Melissa, T.D. 14-E forms

Tropical Storm Karen’s latest track has it headed for the U.S. as a minor tropical storm. One model has Karen off New England as a hurricane. T.D. 14-E formed in the East Pacific as T.D. 14L in the Atlantic became Melissa. Talk about a coincidence.

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S.T.D 11 forms in the northeast Atlantic; Ivo may dissipate later today

The second Subtropical system in 72 hours has formed in the Northeast Atlantic. Here’s a rundown:

  • 36.2 North, 46.1 West
  • 1060 miles West of the Azores
  • Currently stationery, expected to turn toward the north tonight.
  • Maximum Sustained Winds are 30 knots, or 35 miles per hour.
  • Could become a Tropical or Subtropical Storm later today.
  • Estimated Minimal Central Pressure at 1007 millibars.

Tropical Depression Ivo is forecast to possibly impact the Baja Peninsula as a Remnant Low. Ivo has sure become badly organized in the last couple of days. I remember that the day it was named, I thought it was going to at least bottom out as a Category 2 or 3, but the conditions sure as heck weren’t favorable for that.

UPDATE 9:49 AM – The Tropical Storm Watch for the Baja Peninsula was also canceled. I wonder why :p

Ivo on it’s last legs

Ivo has weakened to 45 mph as of the most recent advisory and I honestly don’t think it is going to hold up much longer. I’m thinking it will dissipate before reaching the Baja Peninsula. Also there is a very organized low in the northeast atlantic that will probably be the 4th subtropical storm of the season to form.

Tropical Depression Ten; Ivo downgraded to a Tropical Storm.

This morning the first advisory on Subtropical Depression Ten was issued and three hours later it was changed to a Tropical Depression. Warnings are currently up along the Gulf Coast and the depression is expected to make landfall in Florida and not reach Tropical Storm strength.

Also, Ivo is now downgraded to a 70 mph tropical storm.

Ivo hasn’t strengthened much; Invest 93L to become Jerry today?

Ivo hasn’t strengthened as much over the last 24 hours as it had when it was a tropical storm and is currently at 80 mph, and has remained there for most of the last part of the day. There is no eye visible, but it does look like one is trying to reform. Also, a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement was issued on Invest 93L in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and we may have Subtropical Depression Ten or Subtropical Storm Jerry later today.

Ivo nearly (or maybe) a hurricane

Ivo is currently a 70 mph tropical storm, but recent satellite images indicate that Ivo may be a hurricane already, as I saw an eye on the satellite loop. Something tells me that Ivo will be a major hurricane within 72 hours.

Tropical Storm Ivo

The satellite area of the NHC website lists instead of 12E, it has Ivo, meaning that we have, for the very first time ever, Tropical Storm Ivo! Ivo looks very organized on satellite and shortly after the sunlight passed, there looked like an eye was forming. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 45-55 kt storm at 11 PM. I think we will see Ivo peak as a Category 4 hurricane, or maybe a 5. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Tropical Depression Twelve-E forms

Tropical Depression Twelve-E formed at 1:00 PM EDT this afternoon, or 10:00 AM PDT, this morning. Twelve-E is projected to become Tropical Storm Ivo and threaten the Baja California.